Meaning
Estimation of what an arrangement or asset will achieve over a specific period is based on current data and future assumptions. A projected future provides the framework for decisions made by the person holding the seat. It governs the investment of hours and the allocation of capacity toward an outcome that has not yet arrived.
Because a projected future is not a fact, it must be updated whenever the environment changes to ensure that the founder is not building on a foundation of outdated assumptions. The measurement stops at the point where the projection meets the reality of the record.
Forecasting Model
Construction of a vision for the work requires the identification of primary variables that drive success. Because the forecast is a guess, it must be updated whenever new evidence arrives in the room. The person who builds the model is responsible for its accuracy.
Risk Exposure
Relying on a hypothetical outcome creates a vulnerability if the assumptions prove to be false. Every projected future carries the cost of being wrong, which can be measured in lost time and energy. The founder must weigh the potential gain against the cost of the bet.
Verification Delay
Confirmation of a projection only happens when the time period has passed and the results are in the room. Until that moment, the vision remains a wish that has been priced but not yet paid. The record only captures the truth after the event has occurred.